Will the music still play in 2020?

The year-end rally has pushed the three major U.S. benchmark indexes to fresh records. With just two trading days left of the year, U.S. stocks dropped back from those records on Monday. As investors turn their attention to 2020, the key questions surround whether stocks will continue to rally and the risk of a recession.

In our call of the day, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said the decadelong economic expansion could continue for “many more years,” putting forward a bull case for markets in 2020.

He said the expansion had been characterized by an “extreme degree of caution” among consumers and companies since 2008-09, with discretionary spending still below historical averages.

Slok said: “The lack of willingness to spend on consumer durables and corporate capex is also the reason why this expansion has been so weak.

“And it is also the reason why this expansion could continue for many more years; we are simply less vulnerable to shocks in 2020 because there are few imbalances in the economy.”

The chart

The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.05% hit 9,000 last week for the first time before dipping slightly on Friday, bringing an end to its 11-day winning streak. Howard Lindzon, co-founder of StockTwits, has been calling for the Nasdaq to reach 10,000 for a number of years and this chart from his blog shows the index’s path since 2000.

Lindzon said that the Nasdaq has survived impeachment, as well as a stalled Amazon AMZN, -0.38%, Netflix NFLX, -0.27% and Facebook FB, +0.03% in recent years, adding that the “trend is my friend” — expecting it to reach the milestone and possibly beyond.

The market

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.05% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.02% rose to fresh record highs on Friday, both indexes fell 0.5% in early trading on Monday as the year-end rally was stopped in its tracks. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.05% declined 0.8%, falling back below 9,000. Asian stocks were mixed on the final full trading day of the year, while European stocks fell 0.5% in early trading. Oil prices edged higher following U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, while gold dipped slightly lower but held steady near three-month highs.

The buzz

Tesla TSLA, -0.59% made its first deliveries of cars built in China on Monday, marking another milestone for the electric-car company that saw its stock soar to record highs last week. The stock climbed 0.5% in premarket trading.

A Federal Reserve study has found that President Donald Trump’s strategy of using import tariffs to protect and boost U.S. manufacturers backfired and led to job losses and higher prices.

The U.S. has carried out military strikes in Iraq and Syria targeting a militia blamed for a rocket attack that killed an American contractor, a Defense Department spokesman said on Sunday.

Salesforce CRM, +0.33% founder Marc Benoiff hit out at Facebook FB, +0.03% on Sunday, calling for regulation. The Salesforce co-chief executive said the social media giant “is the new cigarettes for our society” demanding it be regulated or split up.

Outgoing Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney has issued a climate change warning, urging companies to change their policies around investment in fossil fuels.

Random reads

A chip-shop order mistake and an out-of-date packet of biscuits were among the reasons for nuisance emergency calls taken by British police this year

Author: Callum Keown

Source: Market Watch: The U.S. economic expansion will last ‘many more years’ and 2020 will be good for stocks, says prominent economist

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