Analysts predicted Amazon.com would be the fourth S&P 500 stock to hit a $1 trillion market value. And now, they’re calling for the fifth. You’ll need to be patient, though.

S&P 500 analysts peg Facebook’s (FB) market value to hit $701.3 billion in 12 months. That’s 21% higher than Facebook’s market value is now. Analysts think Facebook’s stock will hit 245.91 a share, up from Jan. 31’s close of 201.91.

If the forecasts are correct, that would make Facebook 13% more valuable than the next S&P 500 company on the list: Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) in 12 months. Analysts think Berkshire will be worth $622.3 billion in a year’s time.

It would also follow Amazon.com (AMZN) hitting $1 trillion on January 31 after a blow-out quarterly earnings report.

Facebook At $1 Trillion: S&P 500 Investors Need Patience

But it could take awhile for Facebook to hit $1 trillion.

Assuming Facebook’s valuation stays the same, earnings would need to rise 43% to justify a $1 trillion valuation. It could take nearly three years for that to happen, based on current earnings forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Analysts think Facebook’s earnings will grow 8.5% in 2020, 17% in 2021 and 21% in 2022.

If Facebook’s market value hit $1 trillion, it would be the second member of the Communications Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) to pull it off. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the first.

S&P 500 Sectors With The Biggest Weightings

But when it comes to market value giants, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rules. It holds the two most valuable S&P 500 stocks — by far. Analysts think Microsoft (MSFT) will be worth $1.48 trillion in 12 months, or 14% more than it is now.

And Apple (AAPL) is seen being valued at $1.42 trillion in a year, or a boost of 5%, in 12 months. Microsoft and Apple combined would be worth $2.9 trillion, or 9% of the S&P 500’s forecasted value of $31.4 trillion in 12 months.

Why does all this matter? Market values determine how much of each stock and sector is held in popular index funds like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

Which ETFs Own The Most Facebook?

Betting on Facebook’s rise comes with peril. You should always consult with the fundamental and chart trends before buying. Analysts are also expecting Facebook to undergo above average price volatility.

Another approach is using ETFs to diversify. The XLC is the ETF with the largest weighting in Facebook stock at 20.4%. Next is Direxion Daily Communication Services (TAWK) at 17% and then Fidelity MSCI Communication Services (FCOM) at 15.9%.

Within larger ETFs, Facebook is nearly 2% of SPY stock and 4.6% of QQQ.

S&P 500 Stocks Expected To Be Most Valuable In 12 Months

Click on ticker symbol for more information
Source: IBD, S&P Global Market Intelligence, * YTD through Jan. 31, 2020

Author: Matt Krantz

Source: Investors: What’s The Next $1 Trillion Stock After Amazon?

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