Summary

Tech bubble 2.0 continues to inflate with impressive speed, courtesy of the fastest post-bear market rally in US history.

Many tech stocks trade at speculative and dangerous valuations. But as Chuck Carnevale says “it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market.” Something great is always on sale.

About 50% of tech stocks are still down since February 19th, including five high-yield tech blue chips: IBM, NTAP, AVGO, CSCO, and JNPR.

Their average yield is 4.1%, they are collectively 14% undervalued, and expected to grow 8.1% CAGR over time. That means about 11.5% probability-weighted 5-year total returns vs. 11.7% CAGR 10-year total returns and 3.1% CAGR 5-year probability-weighted expected total returns for the 45% overvalued S&P 500.

If owned within a well-diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio (which I show you how to build in this article), these five high-yield tech blue-chips can help you enjoy a rich retirement. All while sleeping well at night, no matter what happens with the pandemic, economy, or stock market in the coming years and decades.

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Does it seem that Wall Street has gone tech crazy lately?

Don’t get me wrong, there is a lot to love about tech companies such as

fast-growth
relatively little COVID-19 impact
cash-rich and A-rated fortress balance sheets
long and clear secular growth runways

However, we’re now seeing many of the most popular tech names pricing in truly absurd growth assumptions, including Tesla (TSLA) being priced as if it will generate $350 billion in annual free cash flow by 2045.

But there is good news for the prudent long-term income investor who refuses to gamble and participate in speculative bubbles.

My fellow Dividend Kings co-Founder Chuck Carnevale likes to remind us that “It’s a market of stocks, not a stock market”.

Here is the proof of that. With the market setting record-high after record-high, and now 45% overvalued, about 60% of the S&P 500 is still down for the year.

Ok, but surely none of those are tech stocks, right? Actually, every single sector offers potentially attractive value if you know where to look.

Consumer Staples is actually the sector with the most stocks that have gone up since the pandemic began. About half of tech stocks are still down, and the most hated sectors, such as REITs, finance, energy, and defensive utilities, are almost all down over the past six months.

Which brings us to today’s article, a quest for safe, high-yield tech blue-chips that retirees can use to construct a diversified and prudently risk-managed bunker SWAN portfolio.

One that doesn’t just generate generous, safe, and rising income to fund your expenses, but can withstand anything the future can, and will, throw at us.

Finding Good Tech Value In An Epic Tech Bubble
The Dividend Kings Master List is 461 companies and will max out at 500, including:

all dividend champions (any company with 25+ year dividend growth streak)
all dividend aristocrats (S&P companies with 25+ year dividend growth streaks)
all dividend kings (any company with 50+ year dividend growth streaks)
all 11/11 quality Super SWANs (as close to perfect dividend growths stocks as exist on Wall Street)
Among these 461 companies, there are 47 tech stocks. Note that many popular tech names such as Amazon (AMZN), Alibaba (BABA), Facebook (FB), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), are classified as communications or consumer discretionary by S&P.

I screen these 47 tech companies for fair value or better and wind up with 12 companies.

Next, I screen out any company that’s below 8/11 above-average quality.

(Source: Imgflip)

That leaves us with 10 companies.

Dividend Kings Rating System

My quality ratings are based on three criteria:

dividend safety relative to the S&P 500: 5-point scale
business model (stable profitability over time vs peers): 3-point scale
management quality/dividend culture (capital allocation & dividend track record): 3-point scale
There are 10 8+/11 quality tech dividend stocks that can be purchased at fair value or better today.

Next, I screen for dividend safety, specifically a 4+/5 safety score.

Dividend Kings Safety Model

3/5 is average safety, relative to the S&P 500, which is the proxy for average quality companies.

(Sources: Moon Capital Management, NBER, Multipl.com)

Using the historical recession dividend cut date for the S&P 500, I estimate the probability of each safety rating cutting its dividend during historically normal recessions.

Finally, I multiple that average recession cut risk by the 4X to 6X greater magnitude of this recession, according to the blue-chip economist consensus.

All 10 of the tech names that are still in contention have approximately 6% or less risk of a dividend cut in this recession.

Finally, I consider credit ratings.

Finally, I consider credit ratings.

(Source: S&P)

Credit ratings are based on debt metric guidelines built around over 100 years of default data from S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s.

They are designed to estimate the long-term (30-year) probability of a company defaulting on its bonds.

And since a company that defaults almost always goes bankrupt and their stocks to $0, credit ratings are a good proxy for ultimate fundamental risk.

The University of St. Petersburg has studied the correlation between long-term bankruptcies and credit rating and from that data I have constructed the following table, which is part of the Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool. It thus represents an integral part of how I recommend and buy companies for my retirement portfolio.

(Sources: Our Investment Decision Tool, S&P, University of St. Petersburg)

I screen out any company without an investment-grade credit rating of BBB- or better, implying 11% or less chance of losing 100% of your money over the long term.

This leaves us with eight tech stocks that are

reasonably or attractively priced
have strong balance sheets
have safe or very safe dividends

Finally, I sort these by yield so we can select the high-yielding ones, which I define as 3+%. That may not seem “high-yield” to some, but when the S&P 500 yields 1.7% and 30-year bonds 1.4%, it’s relatively generous safe income.

(Source: Our Company Screening Tool) green = potentially good buy, blue = potentially reasonable buy

Which is how I have selected the best five high-yield tech stocks retirees can safely buy today.

In order of yield:

IBM (IBM): 8/11 above-average quality, 4/5 safety, 5.3% yield, 17% undervalued, potentially reasonable buy
NetApp (NTAP): 10/11 SWAN quality – speculative (turnaround stock), 2.5% or less max portfolio risk cap rec, 4.6% yield, 17% undervalued, potentially good (though speculative) buy
Broadcom (AVGO): 9/11 blue-chip quality, 4/5 safety, 3.8% yield, 8% undervalued, potentially reasonable buy
Cisco (CSCO): 10/11 SWAN quality, 5/5 safety, 3.4% yield, 9% undervalued, potentially reasonable buy
Juniper Networks (JNPR): 8/11 above-average quality, 4/5 safety, 3.2% yield, 20% undervalued, potentially good buy
Why do I recommend considering these tech stocks? Other than the attractive dividends? Let’s consider their fundamentals.

Fundamental Stats On These 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips
Average quality score: 9.0/11 Blue-Chip quality vs. 9.6 average dividend aristocrat
Average dividend safety score: 4.4/5 very safe vs. 4.5 average dividend aristocrat (about 2.5% dividend cut risk in this recession)
Average FCF payout ratio: 49% vs. 58% industry safety guideline
Average debt/capital: 47% vs. 40% industry safety guideline vs. 37% S&P 500
Average yield: 4.1% vs. 1.7% S&P 500 and 2.3% aristocrats
Average discount to fair value: 14% vs. 45% overvalued S&P 500
Average dividend growth streak: 10.2 years vs. 41.8 aristocrats, 20+ Graham Standard of Excellence
Average five-year dividend growth rate: 26.4% CAGR vs. 8.3% CAGR average aristocrat
Average long-term analyst growth consensus: 8.1% CAGR vs. 6.4% CAGR S&P 500
Average forward P/E: 13.5 vs 15.7 historical vs. 23.8 S&P 500
Average earnings yield (Chuck Carnevale’s “essence of valuation”): 7.4% vs. 4.2% S&P 500
Average PEG ratio: 1.67 vs. 1.94 historical vs. 2.78 S&P 500
The average return on capital: 199% (91% Industry Percentile, High Quality/Wide Moat according to Joel Greenblatt)
Average 13-year median ROC: 150% (improving moat)
Average four-year ROC trend: +5% CAGR (improving moat/quality)
Average S&P credit rating: BBB+ vs. A- average aristocrat (7.5% 30-year bankruptcy risk)
Average annual volatility: 29.5% vs. 22.5% average aristocrat (and 26.3% average Master List company)
Average market cap: $88 billion large-cap
Average four-year total return potential: 4.1% yield + 8.1% CAGR long-term growth +3.1% CAGR valuation boost = 15.3% CAGR (7% to 23% CAGR with an appropriate margin of error)
Average probability-weighted expected average five-year total return: 4% to 19% CAGR vs. 1% to 5% S&P 500
Average Mid-Range Probability-Weighted Expected 5-Year Total Return: 11.5% CAGR vs. 3.1% S&P 500 (273% more than S&P 500)

The quality of these companies is obvious.

average quality: 9/11 blue-chip
average safety: 4.4/5 very safe (about 2.5% dividend cut risk)
returns on capital: almost 200% ($2 in annual pre-tax profit/$1 in operating capital it takes to run the business)
return on capital industry percentile: 91% (just 9% of respective peers are more profitable)
strong BBB+ stable credit rating (5% 30-year bankruptcy risk)
What’s more these companies have probability-weighted expected returns of 11.5% CAGR, which is nearly quadruple that of the dangerously overvalued S&P 500.

Probability Weighted Total Return Calculator

(Source: Dividend Kings Investment Decision Tool)

These five companies, if bought in equal amounts, represent some of the most prudent high-yield tech stocks conservative income investors can make during tech bubble 2.0.

Investment Decision Score On These 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips
I never recommend a company, much less put my own money at risk without first knowing exactly how prudent a potential investment it is relative to the S&P 500, most people’s default alternative.

The investment decision score is based on valuation and the three core principles of all successful long-term investors.

Valuation: 14% undervalued = potentially reasonable buy (1% cheaper and a potentially good buy)

Preservation of capital: BBB+ stable credit rating = 5% long-term bankruptcy risk = 7/7

5-Year Dividend return potential: 4.1% yield + 8.1% CAGR long-term growth rate = 25.4% 5-year dividend return vs 10.2% S&P 500 (150% more) = 10/10 Total return potential: 11.5% CAGR probability-weighted expected return vs 3.1% CAGR S&P 500 (273% more) = 10/10 Relative Investment Score: 100% vs 73% S&P 500 Letter Grade: A+ exceptional

Investment Decision Score On These 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips

(Source: Our Investment Decision Tool)

While many tech stocks are in dangerous bubbles, these five represent a potentially excellent investment for conservative income investors, such as retirees.

(Source: Imgflip)

However, don’t just take my word for it, or my math and models. There is one final arbiter of quality and value that is never wrong over the long term, the stock market itself.

Historical Market Returns Of These 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips

(Source: Imgflip)

Ben Graham considered the market to be the ultimate judge of value because over time fundamentals trump sentiment, momentum, and luck.

Over 10+ years fundamentals drive 90% to 91% of returns, becoming 10X as important as luck.

So, rather than just look at the qualitative and quantitative measures of the quality of these companies, let’s let the market tell us whether it’s worth owning these companies in our diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolios.

5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips Since 2010 (Annual Rebalancing)


(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

It’s important to point out that these five tech names are in a bear market, which is exactly why they remain about 14% undervalued during this speculative tech bubble.

Before the recent bear market, they had outperformed the S&P 500 by 7% or 0.8% annually, over the past nine years.

Also note that, over the next five years, 11.5% CAGR is the probability-weighted expected returns from these five companies, which matches the 11.7% CAGR they’ve delivered over the last decade.

The S&P 500 has a 9% to 10% probability of continuing to deliver double-digit returns over the next 10 years, and if it did, we’d be in the midst of a Japan-style market bubble.


(Source: Imgflip)

Risk Management: The Most Important Part Of Successful Long-Term Investing
The most important part of successful long-term investing is safe portfolio construction, meaning risk management.

That’s how you avoid horrible historical average investor returns like these, created by people becoming forced sellers for emotional or financial reasons.

These are the risk management rules that I created with input from colleagues with over 100 collective years of experience in asset management.

They are what I use to run every DK portfolio and my retirement portfolio, where I keep 100% of my life savings.

Volatility Risk Assessment

5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips Peak Declines Since 2010

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

These five stocks are currently in the middle of the worst bear market in a decade, suffering a 28% decline during the March crash. That’s the second bear market in a decade, measured from monthly closing prices.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

The peak intra-day decline during the March crash was 32%, which was actually 2% less than the S&P 500. However, during most downturns, these five companies have been as volatile if not more so than the broader market.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

The upside to more volatile companies is that they tend to recover faster and rise more strongly in post-correction rallies. That’s been true in four of the last five post-correction rallies, including a 103% surge following the oil crash/industrial recession corrections of 2015 to 2016.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

Falling interest rates generally mean more economic uncertainty, and these five tech names are in cyclical industries. Thus, in four of the past five falling rate environments, they underperformed the S&P 500.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

Rising rates tend to occur in stronger economic conditions, which is why these five have outperformed by wide margins in all five rising rate environments of the last decade.

Future Volatility Risk Assessment
JPMorgan’s economists are considered one of the 16 most accurate of the 45 teams tracked by MarketWatch, making up the blue-chip economist consensus.

Those economists have put together some short and long-term risk scenarios that can help us estimate how our portfolios and companies might act if various risk factors impact us in the coming months/years.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

In a future mini-financial crisis, JPMorgan’s economists expect stocks to fall 8% while these five are expected to fall 0.8% less.

If 10-year yields were to rise 1.5% over 1 to 2 years (and bonds fall 11%), stocks are expected to rally 12.5% due to a stronger economy, and these five tech stocks, 13.1%.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

If the pandemic goes better than expected stocks, JPMorgan’s economists think stocks will rally 11%, and these five, about 0.5% less.

If the pandemic goes worse than expected, including a double-dip recession, JPMorgan expects stocks to fall 24%, and these five, to fall 1.4% less.

If the GOP sweeps the November election, then JPMorgan expects stocks to rally 3%, and these five, about the same.

If Sanders or Warren had won the White House and a Democratic Congress hike corporate taxes back to 35%, then JPMorgan expected stocks to fall about 4%, and these five, about the same.

If the US imposes 25% tariffs on 100% of Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates, JPMorgan expects stocks could fall about 9.2%, and these five, 8.6%.

If inflation goes above 2.5% for several years and the Fed hikes short-term rates too far, too fast, triggering a mild recession, then JPMorgan expects stocks to fall about 5%, and these, five 9%.

None of these risk scenarios should scare anyone out of owning any stocks. You can’t avoid risk (or market volatility), only manage it. Here’s a reasonable way to do that.

How To Construct A Bunker SWAN Retirement Portfolio Around These 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips
Let’s use my risk-management rules to first decide how much of our equity portfolio to own in each company.

5% in 8/11 above-average quality dividend aristocrat IBM
2.5% in 10/11 SWAN-speculative NTAP
7% in 9/11 blue-chip AVGO
7% in 10/11 SWAN CSCO
5% in 8/11 above-average quality JNPR

These are the maximum recommended allocations to these companies, and you are free to own smaller positions based on your personal comfort with each company’s risk profile and fundamentals.

However, owning these amounts would mean 26.5% allocation to tech and 20% is my max sector risk cap guideline.

Thus, we need to reduce these allocations by 26% in order to achieve the 20% sector risk cap.

3.7% in 8/11 above-average quality dividend aristocrat IBM
1.8% in 10/11 SWAN -speculative NTAP
5.2% in 9/11 blue-chip AVGO
5.2 % in 10/11 SWAN CSCO
3.7% in 8/11 above-average quality JNPR
Now, we have 19.6% invested in these five high-yield tech stocks.

Next, we need to round out the equity portion of our portfolio, with a blue-chip dividend portfolio such as VIG, SCHD, or NOBL.

I’ll use VIG simply because of its relatively long age, which allows us to backtest over the past decade.

(Source: UBS)

Finally, we need to determine what overall asset allocation to apply to this SWAN portfolio, and we can use historical data about how various balanced portfolios have performed in historical bear markets.

Let’s say that you wanted to minimize the probability of a bear market. In that case, a 50/50 stock/bond allocation has historically resulted in a peak decline of 16% with the largest bear market being a modest 24% since 1950 (The Great Recession).

So, here’s how we build this SWAN portfolio.

3.7% in 8/11 above-average quality dividend aristocrat IBM
1.8% in 10/11 SWAN-speculative NTAP
5.2% in 9/11 blue-chip AVGO
5.2 % in 10/11 SWAN CSCO
3.7% in 8/11 above-average quality JNPR
30.4% VIG (dividend achiever ETF)
25% cash (such as VGSH, SCHD, or a money market account)
25% bonds (FBNDX is an investment-grade bond fund which I use as a proxy for bonds)
What A Diversified And Prudently Risk Managed Portfolio Looks Like

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

Why own so much in cash? Because the goal of a SWAN portfolio is to allow you to achieve your long-term financial goals, while sleeping soundly no matter what happens with the economy or stock market.

Since 1945 in 92% of years when stocks fall, bonds are stable or go up. 8% of the time stocks and bonds fall together.

During March’s global liquidity crunch corporate bonds, treasury bonds, gold, stocks, including dividend aristocrats and low volatility high-yield blue-chips, fell hard. That’s what happens when margin calls go out around the world, and there is a mad dash for cash.

Guess what stays stable as a rock? Cash, such as money market accounts (FDIC insured unlike money market funds), or ultra-short duration T-bills.

For the 8% of times when everything is falling together, you want to own cash or cash equivalents.

For the 92% of times when bonds follow their historical negative correlation to stocks, you want to own enough bonds to ride out the rest of a bear market.

So, let’s see how this SWAN portfolio has performed over the last decade when 90% of its returns were a function of fundamentals + safe portfolio construction.

SWAN 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chip Portfolio Since 2010 (Annual Rebalancing)

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

The math says that 17% more bonds should equal 17% lower returns, 17% less volatility, and equal excess total returns/negative volatility (Sortino ratio = reward/risk ratio).

Which is exactly what this SWAN portfolio delivered. The goal is good returns, sufficient to maintain your standard of living in retirement, with minimum downside volatility.

The only year this portfolio suffered a loss in the last 11 years (including 2020) was a 0.08% decline in 2018.

(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)

No portfolio will outperform all of the time, and this 50/50 SWAN portfolio wasn’t always less volatile than a 60/40.

But it was never so volatile as to cost any retirees sleep or risk becoming forced sellers out of panic or financial necessity, which is the exact point of all SWAN portfolios.

How did this SWAN portfolio stack up against an actual 50/50 balanced stock/bond portfolio during various kinds of market environments in the past decade?

Outperformed 50/50 Benchmark in 5/5 Of the Last Corrections

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

How can the same asset allocation result in superior results? Through good portfolio construction, i.e. active management. The very reason it’s worth taking a few hours to put together a portfolio that meets your needs better than index funds.

Underperformed 50/50 Benchmark in 4/5 Of Last Correction Recoveries By Average Of 1.5%

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

This portfolio didn’t outperform in most correction recovery periods, though it still enjoyed strong gains, and the average underperformance was just 1.5%.

Outperformed 50/50 Benchmark in 4/6 Of the Last Falling Rate Environments

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

This portfolio outperformed a 50/50 benchmark in 4 of the last six falling rate environments.

Outperformed 50/50 Benchmark in 6/6 Of the Last Rising Rate Environments

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

Outperformed 50/50 Benchmark By 3% Annually Over The Past 10 Years… And In 6/7 Rolling Time Periods

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

What about future risks? Past performance is great, but all profits and retirements are funded in the future.

So, let’s consider JPMorgan’s future risk stress test tool’s assessment of this SWAN portfolio and how it might hold up when bad things inevitably happen in the future.

Future Volatility Risk Assessment


(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

In a future mini financial crisis, JPMorgan expects this portfolio to fall 1.2% less than a 50/50 benchmark.

If 10-year yields spike 1.5% within a 1 to 2-year period, and bonds fall 11%, then JPMorgan expects this SWAN portfolio to produce 0.2% higher positive returns.

(Source: JPMorgan Asset Management)

If the pandemic goes better than expected, and stocks rally 10%, a 50/50 portfolio is expected to go up 5%, and this SWAN portfolio, 0.7% less.

If the pandemic goes worse than expected, stocks are expected to fall 24%; a 50/50 portfolio, 13%; and this SWAN portfolio, just 10.6%. In other words, it’s expected to outperform by 2.5% where it matters most, during a future bear market.

Regardless of the election outcome, this SWAN portfolio is expected to be less volatile than a 50/50 portfolio.

If the trade deal falls apart, stocks are expected to fall 8%; a 50/50 portfolio, 4.2%; and this SWAN portfolio, just 3.5%. That’s not even a pullback, it’s an insignificant dip that will likely cost retirees little sleep.

If inflation spikes above 2.5% causing the Fed to make a policy mistake with short-term interest rates and trigger a mild recession, stocks are expected to fall 8%; a 50/50 portfolio, about 4%; and this SWAN portfolio, 5%.

The most severe downturn for this SWAN portfolio that JPMorgan’s economists expect is -10.6%, and that’s if a second wave in the fall triggers a double-dip recession.

Remember that, in that scenario, stocks fall 24%, and this portfolio falls less than half as much.

Could JPMorgan’s model be off about these exact amounts? It almost certainly will be. But the point is that you shouldn’t try to time the market in an effort to avoid all short-term risks, but use sound portfolio construction to manage it.


(Source: Imgflip)

Bottom Line: Even In A Tech Bubble Quality High-Yield Tech Blue-Chips Are On Sale
When will this tech bubble end? No one knows, that’s the nature of bubbles.

Bubbles are not a function of logic or fundamentals, but excessive optimism and euphoria. They are the result of TINA/FOMO (there is no alternative, fear of missing out) mentality and investors ignoring sound risk management principles.

The good news is that prudent long-term investors NEVER have to worry about bubbles.

prudent long-term investors never knowingly overpay for a company
prudent long-term investors use safe portfolio construction and sound asset allocation to manage short and long-term risk
No portfolio in history has managed to only go up, all the time. Just one asset manager has ever claimed to achieve that. That was Bernie Madoff who claimed to deliver 1% monthly returns in all market conditions for 20 years.

We all know how that turned out.

Today, stocks are trading at their highest valuations in 19 years, partying like it’s 1999 while the economy looks more like 1929.

That doesn’t matter to me or any prudent long-term investor.

Today, many tech stocks are trading at insane valuations, including PEs as high as 200+.

That doesn’t matter to prudent long-term investors, who would never make such a speculative gamble.


(Source: Imgflip)

Fortunately, even the red hot tech sector, a virtual minefield of dangerous bubbles today, still offers good opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy quality high-yield blue-chips.

IBM, NTAP, AVGO, CSCO, and JNPR represent five of the safest high-yield tech blue-chips retirees can buy today.

That’s assuming you remember the principles of sound risk management and own them within a prudently risk-managed and well-diversified portfolio.

A portfolio that is designed to maximize the chances of achieving your personal long-term financial goals, while letting you sleep well at night. This is how you remain disciplined, no matter what the economy, stock market, or pandemic does.

(Source: AZ quotes)

Gamblers and speculators pray for luck, thinking of the stock market like a casino.

Prudent long-term investors make their own luck, realizing that Wall Street is absolutely a casino.

In the short term, anything can happen. In the long term, probability, statistics, and math ensure the house always wins.

If you run your portfolio like a business, rather than a slot machine in Vegas, then achieving your long-term financial goals is only a matter of four things:

a focus on quality first
a focus on prudent valuation & risk management always
the discipline to stick to your sound and evidence-based strategy
time to let your income-producing assets work hard so you don’t have to
—————————————————————————————-


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Author: Dividend Sensei

Source: Seeking Alpha: 5 High-Yield Tech Blue-Chip Bargains For A Rich Retirement

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