(Kitco News) Gold’s bull rally is being challenged by strong U.S. dollar gains but this current pullback “is unlikely to turn into a rout,” according to TD Securities. “Justice Ginsberg’s passing and its implications for a Phase 4 deal, rising Covid cases, and the upcoming election uncertainty have created vulnerabilities for the yellow-metal longs … [But] the secular bull market is intact, as long-term inflation expectations will likely continue to rise post-election, particularly if a fiscal deal can be agreed upon in the U.S.” Gold’s late-longs are currently being punished as gold trades “nearly tick-for-tick with the broad dollar index.” TD Securities also points to a rise in ETF gold holdings in recent days, which shows that there is still investment appetite for gold. “The elevated hurdle rate for CTA liquidations further limits the extent of the liquidation for both gold and silver. The risk for gold bugs is therefore limited to an extension of the global risk-off which catalyzed the dollar’s breakout,” TDS says.
Author: Anna Golubova