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Rakesh Upadhyay

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to consolidate for a few days, leading select altcoins to possibly continue their uptrend.

This week the S&P 500 made news by notching a new intraday all-time high and recovering 100% of the losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic in mid-March.

Despite this, there are signs U.S. stock markets could be overvalued. The Buffett indicator, an analysis tool which divides the Wilshire 5000 Index by the U.S. GDP, currently shows 1.7. This figure is quite near to the dot-com era top at 1.71 which was followed by a strong market correction.

However, one major difference between now and the dot-com era is that the current interest rates are at record lows and central banks have been pumping huge amounts of money to support the economy.

Although certain pockets could be looking like a bubble, it is unlikely that the stock markets will crash because of this metric alone.

If the stock markets did crash, Bitcoin (BTC) might dip initially due to souring sentiment, but the price is unlikely to remain low for long because traders who sold their positions in the stock markets will look at safe haven assets to park their money.

Recent Bitcoin investments by hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones and the increased institutional inflow in Grayscale Investments products shows that traders are looking at Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

For the past few months several altcoins have been strongly outperforming Bitcoin. Let’s analyze a few of the altcoins that could do well in the next few days.

BTC/USD

The bulls pushed Bitcoin above the $12,304.37 resistance on Aug. 17 but failed to sustain above it. This attracted profit booking by the short-term traders on Aug. 18, which has pulled the price down to the 20-day exponential moving average ($11,568).

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The average directional index (ADX), a component of the directional movement indicator, remains strong above 35 but the positive directional indicator (+DI) and the negative directional indicator (-DI) are coming close to each other and the 20-day EMA has flattened out, suggesting a range-bound action in the near term.

If the bears can sustain the BTC/USD pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to the $11,000–$10,900 zone is possible. The bulls are likely to defend this zone aggressively and if they succeed, the pair could again rally to $12,304.37. A breakout and close (UTC time) above this resistance is likely to resume the up move.

However, if the bears sink the price below $10,900, a retest of $10,400 is likely. This is an important support to watch out for because if this breaks down, the sentiment will turn hugely negative.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The -DI is above the +DI and the 20-EMA is sloping down on the 4-hour chart, which suggests that bears have the upper hand in the short-term. They are aggressively selling on pullbacks to the 20-EMA.

On the downside, the $11,000 level is likely to act as a strong support. A strong bounce off it will keep the pair range-bound between $11,000–$12,304.37 for a few days.

The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-EMA as that will suggest a change in sentiment in the short-term.

ETH/USD

The failure of the bulls to sustain Ether (ETH) above the immediate support at $415.634 resulted in profit booking by the short-term traders. This has pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($393), which is a negative sign.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The next support on the downside is $366. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the bulls are defending this support. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the +DI and -DI are close to one another, which suggests a balance between supply and demand.

This points to a possible range-bound action between $366–$446.479 for a few days. A breakout above the range is likely to resume the uptrend while a break below it can result in a decline to the next support at $320.

ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the -DI is above the +DI and the 20-EMA is sloping down, suggesting an advantage to the bears in the short-term. Previously, the $366 support had acted as a strong support, hence, the bulls will again attempt to defend this level.

A strong bounce off it could result in a rally to $415.634. If the price turns down from this resistance, then a few days of range-bound action is possible.

Conversely, if the $366 support breaks, it will be a huge negative that could result in a decline to $320.

ATOM/USD

Cosmos (ATOM) has broken above the $7.249 resistance today, which is a huge positive as this suggests a possible resumption of the uptrend. The ADX is above 30 and the +DI is above the -DI, which suggests that the bulls have the upper hand.

ATOM/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the bulls can close (UTC time) the price above $7.249, the next target to watch out for is $8.50 and then $10.

However, if the bears sell at higher levels and pull the price back below $7.249, a drop to $6.604 is possible. If the ATOM/USD pair rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend.

Conversely, if the bears sink and sustain the price below $6.604, it will suggest that the momentum has weakened. Below this support, a drop to $5.423 is likely.

ATOM/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bullish momentum picked up after the buyers pushed the price above the $6.604 resistance. Although the bears attempted to stall the up move at $7.249, strong buying by the bulls soaked up all the selling.

The 20-EMA is sloping up and the +DI has risen above the -DI, which shows that the path of least resistance is to the upside. A break below $7.249 will be the first sign that the bullish momentum has weakened.

NEO/USD

The ADX in NEO is above 57 and the 20-day EMA ($15.38) is sloping up, which suggests that the trend favors the bulls. However, the bears are attempting to stall the up-move at $19.82219.

NEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

This could result in a minor correction or consolidation that is likely to find support at $16.72441 and below it at the 20-day EMA.

If the NEO/USD pair rebounds off either support, the bulls will once again attempt to push the price above $20.9633. If they succeed, the next target on the upside is $25.23.

This bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the momentum has weakened.

NEO/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $19.82219. Currently, the 20-EMA is sloping up, which suggests that the advantage is with the bulls.

If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the resistance. If they succeed, the uptrend is likely to resume.

Conversely, a break below the 20-EMA will weaken the bullish momentum and could result in a drop to $15.64796–$16.72441 support zone. A bounce off this zone could keep the pair range-bound for a few days.

CRO/USD

Crypto.com Coin (CRO) has been range-bound between $0.15306–$0.176596 for the past few days. In an uptrend, when the price consolidates near the overhead resistance, it is a positive sign because it suggests that the bulls are not closing their positions in a hurry.

CRO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ADX is above 31 and the +DI is above the -DI, which suggests that the advantage is with the bulls. Although the bulls had pushed the price above $0.176596 on Aug. 21, they could not sustain the higher levels.

However, the positive thing is that the buyers have not allowed the price to sustain below the 20-day EMA ($0.164). If the bulls can again propel the price above $0.176596, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The first target is $0.191101 and above it $0.20. This bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the CRO/USD pair below $0.15306.

CRO/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart is flattish, which suggests a balance between the bulls and the bears.

However, the pair has formed a series of higher lows, which has resulted in an ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a breakout and close (UTC time) above $0.176596.

The first sign of weakness will be a break below the trendline. Such a move can drag the price down to the critical support at $0.15306. A break below this level will shift the advantage in favor of the bears.

Author: Rakesh Upadhyay

Source: Coin Telegraph: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, ETH, ATOM, NEO, CRO

Bitcoin is nearing the end of its consolidation phase and the resulting move will determine if altcoins continue to outperform BTC price in the short term.

This week Warren Buffett made waves throughout financial media as reports that Berkshire Hathaway sold several bank stocks and purchased shares in Barrick Gold were made public thanks to the company’s latest quarterly shareholder filing.

This purchase is significant because Buffet has been a strong critic of gold, however, in the current economic conditions, he appears to have changed his view and sought safety in the asset.

Bitcoin advocate Max Kaiser believes that several fund managers are now likely to increase their allocation to gold, which could boost its price to $5,000.

Kaiser also expects institutional money to flow into Bitcoin (BTC) resulting in a rally to $50,000.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that Bitcoin has cemented its position as a store of value over the past year.

Although he expects gold to move higher, Novogratz believes that Bitcoin is a better buy because it only has “a $220 billion market cap, where gold is over $10 trillion and so Bitcoin has a long way to go to catch gold in just adoption.”

Grayscale Investments CEO Barry Silbert said that their recent advertisements on various television networks bore fruit as the company has seen an inflow of $217 million into various Grayscale funds in a week.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the recent highs of $12,113.50, which shows that the bulls are not closing their positions as they anticipate the uptrend to extend further.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The average directional index (ADX), a component of the directional movement indicator, remains strong above 38 and the 20-day exponential moving average ($11,357) is sloping up, which suggests that the uptrend is strong.

The BTC/USD pair has formed a pennant, which is a bullish pattern. If the buyers can propel the price above the pennant and the overhead resistance at $12,304.37, the uptrend is likely to resume.

This setup has a target objective of $14,956. However, the bears will try to stall the rally at $13,000 and again at $14,000.

Instead of the breakout, if the bears sink the pair below the pennant, a drop to $10,400 is likely. A break below this level will suggest a lack of buyers at higher levels and might signal a short-term top.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The positive directional indicator (+DI) and the negative directional indicator (-DI) are criss crossing and the ADX has dropped near to 18. This suggests a lack of direction on the 4-hour chart.

Currently, the price has turned down from the resistance line of the pennant, which suggests that the bears are aggressively defending this level. However, the bears have not been able to sustain the price below the 20-EMA, which suggests buying on dips.

A breakout of the resistance line of the pennant will signal that bulls are back in the driver’s seat. On the other hand, if the price sustains below the 20-EMA, a drop to the support line of the pennant is likely.

ETH/USD

Ether (ETH) remains in a strong uptrend with the ADX trading above the 53 levels and the 20-day EMA ($382) rising up. The +DI remains well above the -DI, which suggests that the bulls have the upper hand.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USD pair has rebounded off the breakout level of $415.634, which shows strong buying by the bulls at this support. If the bulls can push the price above $444.15, a rally to $480 is likely.

Conversely, if the bears sink and sustain the price below $415.634, a drop to the 20-day EMA is possible. If the pair rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend.

However, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, then a drop to $366 is likely. A strong rebound off this level could keep the pair range-bound for a few days.

The bears had pushed the price below the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart but they could not sustain the price below the $415.634 support, which suggests that the bulls are aggressively defending this support. If the bulls can now drive the price above $444.15 then the uptrend is likely to resume.

However, if the pair turns down from $444.15, then the price might consolidate in a tight range for a few days.

The ADX has corrected to below 23 levels, which suggests that the trend has weakened in the short-term. This also points to a possible consolidation in the near term. This view will be invalidated if the pair turns down and breaks below the $415.634 support.

EOS/USD

The ADX on EOS is below the 20 level, which suggests that it is not in a strong trend yet. However, the sharp rally on Aug. 15 carried the price close to the critical overhead resistance at $3.8811.

ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USD pair has rebounded off the breakout level of $415.634, which shows strong buying by the bulls at this support. If the bulls can push the price above $444.15, a rally to $480 is likely.

Conversely, if the bears sink and sustain the price below $415.634, a drop to the 20-day EMA is possible. If the pair rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend.

However, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, then a drop to $366 is likely. A strong rebound off this level could keep the pair range-bound for a few days.

EOS/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the bears are defending this resistance level but the bulls are attempting to push the price above it.

If the bulls can sustain the EOS/USD pair above the overhead resistance at $3.8811, the momentum is likely to pick up. The next target on the upside is $4.4 and then $4.66. If both these levels are scaled, the rally can extend to $5.40.

Contrary to this assumption, if the bears sink the price below $3.50, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($3.16) is possible.

EOS/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The ADX on the 4-hour chart has risen to above 41 level, which suggests that the short-term trend is strong. The +DI is above the -DI and the 20-EMA is sloping up, which suggests that the bulls have the upper hand.

Currently, the price has rebounded off the 20-EMA, which suggests strong buying on dips to this support. The bulls will now try to sustain the price above the $3.8811 resistance. If successful, the uptrend is likely to pick up momentum.

This view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-EMA. Such a move will signal advantage to the bears.

XTZ/USD

Tezos (XTZ) broke above the overhead resistance of $3.96 on Aug. 10. Although the bears attempted to fake this breakout on Aug. 11 and 12, they could not sustain the lower levels, which suggests aggressive buying by the bulls on dips.

XTZ/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ADX has risen to above 28 level, which suggests that the trend is gaining strength. If the XTZ/USD pair rebounds off the $3.96 levels, the bulls will try to resume the uptrend by pushing the price above $4.50. If successful, the pair can rally to $5.5.

Contrary to the assumption, if the bears sink the price below the critical support at $3.96, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($3.62) is possible. If the pair bounces off this support, the bulls will attempt to resume the up move.

This bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. Below this level, the decline can extend to $2.6.

XTZ/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have held the $3.96 support. If they can push the price above the downtrend line, a move to $4.50 is possible. However, if the bears defend this resistance, the pair could remain range-bound for a few days.

The flat 20-EMA and the sharp fall in the ADX suggests a balance between supply and demand. This view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below the $3.96 support. If that happens, a fall to $3.60 and then to $3 is possible.

ATOM/USD

Cosmos (ATOM) broke above the overhead resistance of $5.423 on Aug. 12, which has pushed the ADX to above 30 levels. The +DI is above the -DI and the 20-day EMA ($4.97) is sloping up, suggesting an advantage to the bulls.

ATOM/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the ATOM/USD pair has recovered from the intraday lows, which suggests strong buying on dips.

If the bulls can push the price above $6.604, the uptrend is likely to resume. If an uptrend resumes only after a one to three day correction, it indicates strong momentum. The pair remains positive as long as it sustains above the breakout level of $5.423.

The bears will gain an upper hand if the pair drops below $5.423 and sinks below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will signal a lack of buyers at higher levels and could result in a deeper correction.

ATOM/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The ADX on the 4-hour chart has dropped to below 25 levels, and the +DI and the -DI are close to each other, suggesting a balance between the bulls and the bears. The 20-EMA is also flattening out, which is another indication of a consolidation.

However, if the bulls can propel the price above the downtrend line, a move to $6.35 and then to $6.604 is possible. The uptrend is likely to resume on a close (UTC time) above 6.604.

Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the trendline, a drop to $5.423 is likely. A break below this support will turn the short-term trend in favor of the bears.

Author: Rakesh Upadhyay

Source: Coin Telegraph: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, ETH, EOS, XTZ, ATOM

The world is in a state of panic due to the coronavirus pandemic. People are fighting over toilet paper, which shows the extent of nervousness. At such a time, even investors are likely to show irrational behaviors.

The governments are attempting to calm the markets by supplying enough liquidity, which is likely to run into trillions of dollars. However, even after that, the world economy might slip into a global recession.

The head of operations at Genesis Mining Philip Salter said that if the economic crisis does not deepen further, it “will not have major implications for Bitcoin.” However, if the crisis deepens and skepticism builds up, it might be favorable for Bitcoin because then people will see it as a hedge against the banking system.

CEO of Binance Changpeng Zhao said that the coronavirus pandemic “is just a trigger, not the root cause” for the current economic meltdown. This shows that the economy was on a weak footing because a strong economy should have withstood a few shocks. Zhao believes that the investors will stop hoarding cash at some point in time and will diversify their portfolio and Bitcoin will benefit from it because it is not “broken”. However, it might not happen in a hurry because “changes don’t happen immediately when a mass population is involved,” Zhao added.

The cryptocurrencies are attempting a recovery from their recent lows. Let’s analyze the top five performers of the past seven days to see whether the recovery will pick up steam or fizzle out.

DASH/USD

Dash (DASH) is the best performer of this week with a stellar rally of about 40%. The Dash Core Group announced the release of a new Dash platform v0.11, “which includes a significant update to Evonet, the testing environment for platform functionality.” Can Dash start a sustained recovery from the current levels? Let’s study its chart.

DASH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The DASH/USD pair has been trading inside a falling wedge for more than a year. The positive thing to note is that whenever the price bounces off the support line of the wedge, it manages to move up to the resistance line of the wedge.

Another positive development on the chart is the RSI, which is showing signs of forming a bullish divergence. All these signs suggest that the pair might turn positive in the short-term and move up to $150. The moving averages might offer a minor resistance but we expect them to be crossed.

If the momentum can carry the price above the wedge, it will be a huge positive as it will signal the start of a new uptrend. However, if the bears defend the resistance line once again, the pair will extend its stay inside the wedge.

Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the moving averages and plummets below the support line of the wedge. However, we give it a low probability of occurring.

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) is the second-best performer of the past seven days with a rally of about 29%. In Kleiman v. Wright Lawsuit, the U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart ruled that Craig Wright only needs to pay 20% of the legal fees requested by the estate of the late-Dave Kleiman.

BSV USD weekly chart. Source: Tradingview

The BSV/USD pair is attempting to break out of the descending channel. Just above the channel, it is likely to face resistance at the 20-week EMA at $189, which has flattened out. The RSI is also close to the midpoint, which suggests a balance between the bulls and bears.

If the pair turns down from $189, it might drop to $78.506 and remain range-bound between these two levels for the next few days.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls if they can push the price above the 20-week EMA. Above this level, a move to $279, equal to the depth of the channel is possible. If this level is also crossed, the next level to watch out for is $337.80. Conversely, if the bears sink the pair below $78.506, a drop to $38.528 is possible.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), with a gain of about 19% in the past seven days turned out to be the third-best performer. The world’s biggest stablecoin Tether (USDT) launched on the Bitcoin Cash network during the week.

BCH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The BCH/USD pair has been range-bound between $166.25 and $515.35 for the past many months. Currently, the pair has been falling inside a descending channel, which shows that bears have the upper hand.

However, if the bulls can push the price above the channel, it will be the first indication of a likely change in trend. Above the channel, the bulls might face stiff resistance at the moving averages close to $300.

If the price turns down from the moving averages, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days between $166.25 and $300. On the other hand, if the bulls can scale and sustain the price above the moving averages, it will open the doors for a move to $515.35.

Our view will be invalidated if the bears sink and sustain the price below the support at $166.25. If this level cracks, the downtrend can extend to $100.

BTC/USD

The last financial crisis in 2008 resulted in the birth of Bitcoin (BTC) and the current crisis due to the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cement its place. After the sharp drop on March 12, many questioned the relevance of Bitcoin as a safe haven. However, after the initial panic, the largest cryptocurrency has come back smartly in the past few days.

Platinum Account Manager at eToro Simon Peters believes that all the cash that is being pumped into the system will search assets to invest after the virus cases reduce and Bitcoin is likely to be one of the beneficiaries.

Chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management Travis Kling said that Bitcoin “is an insurance policy against the largest monetary experiment in human history.” While the fundamentals look positive, let’s look at the charts and analyze the technicals.

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside a large symmetrical triangle since 2017. The bulls are currently attempting to defend the support line of the triangle while the bears are attempting to sink the price below it.

If the bulls can push the price above the overhead resistance at $6,435, the rebound is likely to pick up momentum. The next level to watch on the upside is $10,500, which is just below the resistance line of the triangle.

A break above the triangle will be a huge positive as it will signal the start of a new uptrend. Above the triangle, the first target to watch out for is $14,000 and above it $16,000. Therefore, traders can wait for the price to sustain above $6,435 before buying for the long-term.

Contrary to our assumption, if the pair turns down from $6,435 and breaks below the support of the triangle, it will be a huge negative.

CRO/USD

Crypto.com Coin (CRO) rounded off the list of the top performers with a rally of about 12%. Crypto.com has begun shipping MCO Visa Cards to the UK, which will offer several attractive services to the clients. According to the company, the cards will be shipped to the rest of Europe over the next few weeks.

CRO USD weekly chart. Source: Tradingview

The CRO/USD pair has been trading inside the $0.025258-$0.080 range for the past few months. Currently, the bulls are attempting to defend the support of the range. The first level to watch on the upside is the 20-week EMA at $0.045.

If the price turns down from this level, the pair might remain range-bound between $0.045-$0.025258 for the next few days. A break below the support of the range will be a huge negative as it will start a new downtrend.

Conversely, if the bulls can push the price above the 20-week EMA, the pair can gradually move up to $0.060 and above it to $0.080. A break above $0.080 will signal the start of a new uptrend that has a target objective of $0.134742.

Author: Rakesh Upadhyay

Source: Coin Telegraph: Top 5 Cryptos This Week (Mar 22): Bitcoin (BTC), DASH, BSV, BCH, CRO

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