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Bitcoin grapples with $11,000 as money laundering engulfs the banking sector again and coronavirus spoils stocks sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week still looking for $11,000 support as macro markets wobble over coronavirus and banks’ criminal activities.

Cointelegraph highlights five factors that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.

Banks face money laundering deluge

While central banks grappled with dramatic shifts in United States economy policy, fresh leaked files showed yet more evidence of largescale money laundering.

A huge trove of documents from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), dubbed the FinCEN Files, found its way to investigative journalists throughout the world this month, and the focus was clear: illegal activities gone unnoticed.

One example involves HSBC, which continued allowing funds to move through its accounts despite being notified of their criminal origins. The bank’s shares were down to 25-year lows on Monday.

Other revelations include much activity linked to the Russian elite using United Kingdom banks to avoid Western sanctions.

Bitcoin proponents were quick to call out the irony of the situation, given the history of many banks in the files claiming that Bitcoin itself facilitated crime.

A pair of advertisements in Hong Kong for Bitcoin and HSBC ironically summarized the status quo, with statistician Willy Woo tweeting:

“‘Be your own Bank. The story continues’. HSBC on point!”

Central banks around the world continue to deal with coronavirus fallout, meanwhile, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet to discuss its response — and possible implications for the euro — this week.

As Cointelegraph reported, the Bank of England (BoE) is currently entertaining the possibility of introducing negative interest rates for the first time in its history.

Stocks down as coronavirus weighs

Trading in Asia opened on a weaker note Monday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index down 1.5% — driven by HSBC shares hitting their lowest since 1995.

A similar picture came from Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 1.6%. In the United States prior to the opening bell, S&P 500 futures were down 1%.

The U.S. faces a mixed bag of woes as politicians struggle to agree on a fresh coronavirus stimulus package and elections draw nearer.

This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, after last week’s speech about the central bank’s extraordinary economic policy progress left many skeptical about its capabilities.

“We do have concerns down the stretch about the markets reacting poorly to some of the uncertainties facing us — the election, potentially around Covid-19, and the fact that we don’t have a stimulus package yet,” Rebecca Felton, senior market strategist at global asset manager Riverfront Investment Group, told Bloomberg.

“I would have to think we could be volatile to the downside here.”

Any combination weighing on the strength of the U.S. dollar is currently a boon for Bitcoin, continuing its inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY).

On the day, safe-haven gold was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1,953.

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin fundamentals hit new all-time highs

There was more good news for Bitcoin analysts eyeing network strength this week as difficulty and hash rate stayed at all-time highs.

The difficulty, arguably Bitcoin’s most important fundamental feature, increased 11.35% at the latest automatic readjustment on Sunday.

According to estimates from BTC.com, the next readjustment in 12 days’ time is already set to add another 10.2%.

The fresh upside underscores fierce competition among Bitcoin miners to gain block rewards — rewards which remain unalterably constant at 6.25 BTC per block regardless of how many are competing.

Hash rate, meanwhile, an estimate of the total computing power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, hit a fresh record of 143 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Saturday.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 6-month chart. Source: Blockchain

A popular theory suggests that price bullishness follows fundamentals, and miners’ belief in Bitcoin’s long-term profitability is now clear to see.

$11,000 proves tough for BTC

BTC/USD stayed rangebound over the weekend, failing to flip $11,000 into any form of a support level.

The ranging behavior continued a pattern from last week, during which Bitcoin nonetheless managed to exit higher from fundamental support at $10,000.

For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, keeping $11,000 and the higher $11,200 as resistance means that Bitcoin will stay in the $10,000 zone for the time being.

“Given that we’ve got this rangebound construction, we have to check the lower timeframes, in which the most likely scenario is a case of testing the upper resistance zone of $11,200 to $11,400, and given the significance of this resistance zone, it’s unlikely that we’re going to break through it in one go,” he summarized in a Twitter update Saturday.

BTC/USD subsequently fulfilled the prophecy, seeing rejection at just below $11,200 on Sunday.

In terms of further downside potential, should lower support give way, the open CME futures gap at $9,600 remains in play. Analysts stayed divided over whether the recent dip to $9,800 could be classed as sufficient to “close” the gap — Bitcoin may attempt to hit it definitively or leave the recent lows as a bottom.

Investors recover from “fear” of $9,800

According to the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index metric, investor sentiment is broadly recovering from the trip below $10,000.

On Monday, the Index, which takes a basket of indicators to measure investor sentiment, was in the “neutral” range of 48/100.

Previously, as Bitcoin circled $12,000, it measured almost its highest score ever — a warning, creators say, that the market is due for a correction.

Once that happened, a sense of overselling entered, slowly balancing out through the past week to leave the Index at its current reading.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 1-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: HSBC stock hits 25-year low: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

The original stock-to-flow model is calling time on Bitcoin’s phase at around $10,000, and it’s not been wrong so far.

It’s high time for Bitcoin (BTC) to begin its next significant price rise, the creator of one of the best-known BTC price models says.

In a tweet on Sep. 14, quantitative analyst PlanB highlighted increasing signs that BTC/USD is due to repeat historical gains.

PlanB on BTC price: “Time to go up”

Referring to the original incarnation of his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, PlanB said that the time was right to begin an order of magnitude step up.

“This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used),” he wrote alongside a new chart.

“You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up.”

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model as of Sep. 14. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

The original S2F chart differs from the more recent stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which incorporates macro factors and introduces “phases” in Bitcoin’s metamorphosis as an asset. It calls for an average BTC price of $288,000 before 2024.

Since the May halving, Bitcoin has put in “red dots” on the model, which have run to expectations, if not in a similar fashion to what happened after the 2016 halving.

Interestingly, Cointelegraph market analyst Michael van de Poppe is also seeing the same pattern emerge from a technical analysis perspective.

“If you’d like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted on Sept. 14.

“Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it’s likely we’ll see that too.”

When asked where the source of funds will come from in order to propel BTC/USD toward $100,000, PlanB highlighted a blog post about S2F and confirmed that his hypothesis remained valid.

It would be “silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates [..], countries with predatory governments [..], billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”

Analysts eye safe haven bull run

Optimism on safe havens continues this week beyond Bitcoin. As Cointelegraph reported, hopes are high that gold will react positively to Wednesday’s policy update from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Continuing, Mike McGlone, chief strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted strength in gold.

“Rising gold prices, despite declining managed-money net-longs hedge funds and an advancing dollar, are a sign of the strengthening foundation under the metal,” he summarized on Monday.

“Less speculation vs. more organic demand forces are at play for the store of value, which indicates a healthy bull market.”

XAU/USD currently lingers at just under $1,950, having hit all-time highs of $2,075 in August.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: ‘Time to go up’ — Bitcoin price due for a push to $100,000, says PlanB

U.S. dollar strength combines with a decision on monetary policy in Europe as a backdrop to fresh fear among Bitcoin investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $10,000 support after a weekend in which it consolidated after a major drop — what next?

Cointelegraph takes a look at the major factors set to influence BTC price action in the coming week.

Keiser: U.S. currency index needs to drop below 80

The end of last week saw big changes for BTC/USD, with the pair shedding over 15% from $12,050 to bounce at $9,900.

The weekend failed to trigger a significant bounce, with $9,900 seeing several more tests before Bitcoin drifted back into five figures.

What changed on Friday was one macro factor — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began rising after hitting two-year lows.

DXY measures USD against a basket of U.S. trading partner currencies. A week previously, an inflation announcement from the Federal Reserve had a bearish impact on the index, but last week saw a reversal in its fortunes — at the expense of safe havens.

At publication time on Sep. 7, DXY was at 92.95, having risen as high as 93.25 over the weekend. For RT host Max Keiser, fresh losses need to appear for Bitcoin to gain — the inverse correlation between the cryptocurrency and DXY should continue.

“We need the DXY to drop through 80 to get the real fireworks going in #Bitcoin and Gold,” he tweeted.

Keiser added that developments in the ongoing Brexit saga could also prove a positive influence for BTC next month. Should the European Union adopt a hardline stance with the United Kingdom, the euro could benefit and pressure DXY.

“Hopefully the EU cuts (the U.K.) off in October, freeing the Euro to trade higher. This will help Bitcoin a lot,” he wrote.

U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart. Source: TradingView

Crunch time for policy in Europe

On the topic of geopolitics, multiple events this week may serve to steer markets, with Bitcoin reacting in step.

In addition to preparations for Brexit talks failing, the EU will eye economic policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss its options.

As Cointelegraph noted, deflation has returned to the ECB’s sphere of influence for the first time since 2016. Now, the focus will turn to whether copying the U.S. approach is suitable for the eurozone.

As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global recovery from the March coronavirus crash, once robust, is now fizzling.

“High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall – with activity still well short of pre-virus levels – in the third,” the publication’s chief economist, Tom Orlik, commented.

To return to “pre-virus normality,” he added, all that would work is a coronavirus vaccine.

CME gap opens at $10,600

This weekend delivered on a classic Bitcoin price trigger which could see short-term upside reenter the picture.

On Friday, CME Group’s Bitcoin futures closed trading at $10,615 but reopened again at $10,430.

The resulting “gap” in the market provides likely room for an uptick from current levels of $10,100 — if Bitcoin follows historical behavioral patterns, the void should not last long.

The original dip below $10,000 gave rise to hopes that the only gap disobeying the rule — at $9,700 — would get filled. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $10,000 must disintegrate to make that possible.

“Holding $10,000 should warrant a short-term relief bounce towards the $10,800-10,900 area,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday.

“Breaking $10,000 and the market goes for the CME gap in one-go and we’ll see mid $9K’s.”

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap. Source: TradingView

Fundamentals see only a modest fall

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals look set to take a break this week as miners take stock of the price declines.

According to data from on-chain monitoring resources BTC.com and Blockchain, difficulty and hash rate are set to come off near all-time highs.

The next automatic difficulty adjustment will occur on Monday and will see a negative move of an estimated 1.7%. The difficulty is currently at its highest ever, underscoring the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.

The hash rate, meanwhile, saw its absolute peak in mid-August but has since dropped only negligibly — currently at around 122 exahashes per second (EH/s).

Hash rate gives a rough estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, with downward price pressure tending to disrupt some less profitable miners.

On Thursday, a day before the $9,900 dip, Cointelegraph reported on outflows from some major mining pools spiking — BTC was heading to exchanges while the spot price was around $11,500 after a rejection of $12,000 support.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain

Sentiment turns from greed to fear

In a telling consequence of price action, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dropped to its most “fearful” in almost two months.

According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investors have completely changed their outlook versus just one week ago.

The Index takes multiple factors into account to compile a normalized reading of how much fear or greed is circulating from market participants at a given time. The higher the reading, the more likely the market is due for a correction.

As Cointelegraph reported, much of August saw the index linger near its all-time highs of 85/100, known as “extreme greed.” Before the run to $12,000, however, the number was closer to 40, or “fear.”

Friday saw another shake-up, with “greed” abruptly disappearing to be replaced once again by “fear” with the index measuring 41/100, the lowest levels since July.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Fear, politics and the dollar: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Performance remains on track, the stock-to-flow model shows, as creator PlanB tells investors “Patience is a virtue.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is charting its way directly between the previous two block subsidy halvings that sent its price an order of magnitude higher.

In a tweet on Sept. 2, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) BTC price models, told investors to be “patient” when it comes to price appreciation.

Bitcoin price remains on track four months after halving

Despite bouncing near $11,000 support on Wednesday, Bitcoin has performed exactly as expected on monthly timeframes since its last halving event in May.

Reluctance to break and secure $12,000 as support has characterized price action since, but progress on the monthly chart is plain to see.

“Reminder: we are still early, only 4 months after #bitcoin 2020 halving, nicely between 2012 and 2016 paths,” PlanB commented.

“Patience is a virtue.”

An accompanying comparative price index chart showed Bitcoin in 2020 adding gains that are between those of 2012 and 2016.

As such, BTC/USD remains firmly within the range of possibility for increasing by an order of magnitude once again. According to S2F, this should see a price target of $288,000 in the current halving cycle, which ends in 2024.

Bitcoin price post-halving comparison. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

$41,000 end-of-year BTC price target appears

Over the weekend, meanwhile, another chart painted an even more bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Taking May’s halving as a starting point, data analysis resource Ecoinometrics produced a price target for $41,000 for the end of this year.

“Looking solid,” the firm said on Twitter, adding that $100,000 should appear by April 18, 2021.

Bitcoin price forecast post-2020 halving. Source: Ecoinometrics/ Twitter

The targets were compiled using average growth after Bitcoin’s previous halvings.

Meanwhile, short-term changes in network sentiment have not contributed to a change in long-term outlook. These include a spike in outflows from mining pools indicative of selling activity this week, data from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant showed.

Chinese mining pool Poolin saw outflows of 490 BTC, the majority of the activity.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin mirrors gains of past halvings, suggesting $41K price in 2020

Another monthly close is exactly in line with stock-to-flow predictions, as Europe sees a return to negative inflation and the dollar wanes.

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading to $288,000 and higher “like clockwork” as fiat currency woes mount and European inflation goes negative.

In a tweet on Sept. 1, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) family of Bitcoin price models, said that BTC/USD had performed exactly as expected in August.

BTC price: Another month, another “red dot”
Listing the monthly closing price since May’s block subsidy halving, PlanB noted that each corresponded to the predictions of his S2F cross-asset model.

“Bitcoin… like clockwork,” he summarized.

Bitcoin has now put in its fourth so-called “red dot” on the S2F chart since May. According to performance after the previous two halvings, that leaves just months before a major price surge ensues.

According to S2FX, the current halving cycle, which like the others lasts four years, should produce a Bitcoin price focal point of $288,000. The top, PlanB previously explained, could be more than double that.

BTC/USD attempted to break $12,000 resistance once more on Tuesday, held back at $11,950 prior to the start of markets trading on Wall Street.

Bitcoin S2FX model as of Sept. 1, 2020. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

Winklevoss: US dollar “becoming a shitcoin”

Bitcoin’s strength comes amid fresh bad news from central banks. This time, it was Europe in focus, as the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that inflation in the eurozone had fallen into negative territory for the first time since 2016.

This, as market commentator Holger Zschaepitz noted, comes despite a huge liquidity drive from the ECB. The net result of more money has thus been deflation.

“OUCH! Looks as if ECB has failed to spur inflation w/money printing,” Zschaepitz tweeted.

Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) inflation and ECB balance sheet chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz/ Twitter

In the United States, the dust continues to settle from last week’s announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding inflation — that it would be allowed to rise above 2% temporarily.

Both Bitcoin and gold proponents were pleased with the policy’s impact on price but appealed to others to abandon their exposure to the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, Gemini exchange co-founder and entrepreneur Tyler Winklevoss continued the tone.

“The U.S. dollar is becoming a shitcoin faster than ever imagined. Bitcoin is the key to salvation,” he told Twitter followers.

As Cointelegraph reported, Warren Buffett buying gold and then Japanese assets worth $6 billion added to the sense of doom over USD.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin is targeting $288K stock-to-flow price ‘like clockwork’ — PlanB

Amid multiple warnings over the world’s reserve currency, Bitcoin stands to gain if recent macro correlation remains intact.

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for a bullish start to another week’s trading after shrugging off lower levels to hit $11,700.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that could shape price performance in the coming days after BTC/USD saw little impact from both the Fed and futures settlements last week.

Stocks put in higher highs

In a classic continuation of the eerie post-coronavirus setup, stock markets are headed even higher on Monday.

Despite the difficulties faced by many after months of sporadic coronavirus lockdowns and associated economic hardship, large-cap stocks around the world are showing no signs of bearishness.

The Dow Jones made brisk progress before moving slightly lower towards the end of trading, up 0.5% on the day. In the United States, S&P 500 futures were also up modestly at 0.3% as of press time.

The progress comes as geopolitical tensions also fester, with the U.S. and China sparring over issues such as Washington’s planned enforced sale of social media platform TikTok.

Speaking to Bloomberg, however, one analyst sounded more like a Bitcoin bull when describing the outlook for equities.

“I can’t see what’s going to change people’s perspective on why we should stop buying,” Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at U.S. multinational financial services giant Charles Schwab told the publication on Saturday.

“If we continue to buy and we have a few more pullbacks, which I think is likely, people will just continue to jump in and buy those dips.”

Bitcoin Vs. S&P 500 3-month chart. Source: Skew

Dollar index bounces after a fresh slump

After most macro assets saw losses on the back of the Fed speech on Thursday, Bitcoin has nonetheless managed a conspicuous turnaround. Since the speech, BTC/USD is up by over 4.2%.

The same is true for safe-haven gold, which also recovered over the weekend. Curiously, the U.S. dollar currency index, or DXY, which plumbed two-year lows after Thursday, has also bounced back — analysts continue to eye inverse correlation between the two assets.

At publication time, Bitcoin circled $11,600, having reached $11,720 in an early morning rally. Despite the broad push forward post-Fed, the consensus among Bitcoin commentators remains that long-term policy will drive interest in hedges against the dollar.

“Powell’s speech is as much about employment as it is inflation. The Fed wants full and healthy employment and are expanding the ways they look at it,” Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz tweeted.

“Inflation will be tolerated to get to these goals. Bullish for gold. Bullish for BTC.”

Should DXY action continue to continue its inverse relationship with Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency may get a further boost sooner rather than later.

“The dollar has far more room to fall than almost anyone thinks,” gold bug Peter Schiff summarized, pointing to another Bloomberg piece in which investment company Pimco warned that the dollar’s fall was just getting started.

Futures gap still untested

Back within Bitcoin and the return of a CME Group Bitcoin futures gap greets traders on Monday.

Modest in size, the void between the end of last week’s futures trading and the start of this week’s lies between $11,645 and $11,735.

That will cause little interest, however, as a more significant interplay with a lower gap remains more of a topic of interest. Located at around $9,700, bets remain that that price will form a short-term price target for BTC/USD.

As Cointelegraph reported, futures “gaps” have historically functioned as reliable indicators of market direction, but the time taken to “fill” them can vary significantly.

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing a gap at $9,700. Source: TradingView

Hash rate heads towards all-time highs

Bitcoin hash rate is staging a fresh comeback after a slight correction this month — data shows seven-day average values back over 125 exahashes per second (EH/s).

The Hash rate represents the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain by miners. The metric is impossible to measure exactly, but hash rate numbers allow for a rough idea of miner sentiment.

125 EH/s is not far off all-time highs for hash rate seen earlier in August, and coupled with all-time highs for network difficulty, it is clear that miners are bullish.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain

PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow price prediction models, agreed last week as difficulty reached its highest-ever levels of 17.6 trillion.

Responding, Saifedean Ammous, the author of “The Bitcoin Standard,” argued that even freak events that wipe out mining hardware would not cause a headache for market participants more broadly.

“In my mind, the destruction of miners would make mining more profitable for other miners,” he wrote in Twitter comments.

“It would only affect the price to the extent it forces miners to sell more than they otherwise would, which I don’t imagine to be a very strong effect.”

Inventors stay greedy

As Bitcoin heads closer to $12,000, investor sentiment may yet see a return to the “extreme greed,” which itself warns a sell-off is incoming.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which challenged its highest reading on record this month, is still lingering in the upper quadrant of its scale — 75/100 on Monday.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

When BTC/USD hit $12,500, readings of 84/100 appeared, which according to the Index’s creators means a correction is likely.

The Index has not been out of the “greed” zone since the end of July.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: USD has ‘more room to fall’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Loosening of inflation handling boosts Bitcoin in line with expectations that the Fed would inadvertently support safe havens with its decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to $11,600 on Aug. 27 as the United States Federal Reserve committed to maintaining an average of 2% inflation.

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed BTC/USD jumping several hundred dollars on Thursday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech on the state of the economy.

Powell: inflation can go “moderately above 2%”

Markets had been waiting for signs about inflation retargeting, with rumors previously suggesting that the Fed would allow rates to go as high as 4%.

In the event, Powell confirmed that inflation would be permitted to head higher than the Fed’s 2% target, but only temporarily.

“Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time,” Powell summarized.

“In seeking to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, we are not tying ourselves to a particular mathematical formula that defines the average.”

At press time following his remarks, BTC/USD was lower at around $11,390, up 0.7% on the day amid heightened volatility.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Coin360

Safe havens feel the pressure of Fed remarks

As Cointelegraph reported, expectations were already high that any inflation overshoots would boost safe-haven assets and weigh on the U.S. dollar.

Gold spiked to over $1,970 as information trickled in from the Fed, up over $30 from hovering at $1,940 through the week.

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

At the same time, the USD currency index, which had dipped to two-year lows in recent weeks, fell further as the speech began, subsequently rebounding to roughly where it had lingered on Wednesday.

U.S. dollar currency index 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

“In conducting monetary policy, we will remain highly focused on fostering as strong a labor market as possible for the benefit of all Americans,” Powell concluded.

“And we will steadfastly seek to achieve a 2 percent inflation rate over time.”

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin briefly hits $11.6K as Fed says it will let inflation pass 2%

A look at the difference between halving cycle highs, lows and halving prices delivers huge BTC price targets which their creator cautions are “hopium.”

Bitcoin (BTC) needs to hit $340,000 just to match its performance from its last halving cycle, data shows.

In a Twitter series on Aug. 20, popular statistics resource ChartsBTC noted that Bitcoin still has huge room for growth at current levels of $11,700.

Halving multiples give up to $1.6 million BTC price

Comparing lows, highs and halving prices from its two previous halving cycles, ChartsBTC put the difference between peaks at 36x for the 2012 cycle and 17x for the 2016 cycle.

In order to repeat even the more modest cycle’s success, BTC/USD would have to trade at $340,000. 36x from last cycle’s high — Bitcoin’s all-time record of $20,000 — comes to $720,000.

Comparing cycle lows, the results are even more dramatic — the smallest jump of 130x from the previous cycle would deliver a Bitcoin price of $400,000.

Running the same diagnosis for Bitcoin’s price at the time of its halving events, the price target is $250,000.

“The multiples from prior cycles applied to the current one arrive at highs between $250k and $1.6M in the next 18 months,” ChartsBTC summarized.

The account noted that while the math adds up, there is little evidence which demands that such levels really do appear within the given timeframe.

“While this may sound exciting, it’s just hopium,” it added.

“The prior highs and lows won’t dictate the future.”

Bitcoin price chart with halving data. Source: ChartsBTC/ Twitter

Parabolic numbers abound in bullish Bitcoin market

Bitcoin investors are nonetheless primed for good news in current conditions as 30% monthly gains give bulls the firm upper hand.

As Cointelegraph reported, the outlook seems rosy despite a modest pullback costing hodlers shaky $12,000 support once again.

Previously, Vijay Boyapati, author of “The Memory Pool,” delivered his own halving-based price prognosis. Following the course of the 2016 cycle, which Bitcoin is currently frontronning, a new all-time price high should appear before the end of 2020.

The current third halving cycle should also deliver a peak price similar to what ChartsBTC hypothesized.

“If we were to follow the 2016/17 trajectory (we’re ahead of schedule right now), the peak of the cycle would occur on October 19th, 2021 and the peak price would be approximately… $325,000,” Boyapati concluded.

Quant analyst PlanB has argued that an average price of $288,000 and a peak of $576,000 or more is possible between now and 2024, the end of the current halving cycle.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin Will Hit $340K if BTC Price Repeats 2016 Halving Cycle Pattern

Bitcoin market analyst filbfilb reveals key similarities between now and late 2016 as bullish sentiment keeps building for BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is repeating the bull run that sent it to $20,000, chart data shows as a new report says $10,000 was an “entry point” for investors.

In a tweet on Aug. 13, Cointelegraph analyst filbfilb highlighted clear similarities between the past few weeks for Bitcoin and its run to all-time highs in 2017.

BTC price 20-week moving average hits key position
The key metric, filbfilb said, is the interplay between BTC/USD spot price and its 20-week moving average.

At present, the relationship between the two is copying that from late 2016, laying the foundations for the bull run which delivered returns of over 3,000% within the year.

In comments, filbfilb added that 2020 was giving signs of being different to bullish phases that had come since, specifically the three-month run last year which topped out at $13,800.

Focusing on the near-term, however, fellow Cointelegraph analyst Michaël van de Poppe argued that a failure to retain $11,200 would result in a correction towards $10,000.

“$11,200 is the support area. If that’s lost, we’ll see more ranging and look for $10,500-10,700 first,” he commented on Thursday.

Filbfilb had previously told Telegram trading channel subscribers that reaching $11,600 would fuel a return to $12,000, but that this level would “unlikely” be cleared.

BTC/USD weekly chart with 20-week moving average highlighted. Source: filbfilb/ Twitter

OKEx: $10,000 “deemed reasonable entry point”

Zooming out, other sources were likewise bullish. In a report released today, the research arm of cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, OKEx Insights and blockchain analytics company Catallact, said its technical investigations revealed definitive support for Bitcoin at $10,000.

“In light of these insights, it would appear that the March 2020 crash saw weak hands pushed out of the market, allowing it to gradually recover and reclaim $10,000 — which put most open positions today in the green,” researchers concluded.

“Moreover, the position buildup leading up to current levels (between $10K and $12K), coupled with the current mildness of profit-taking, indicates that these prices were deemed reasonable entry points by participants. It also indicates that those in profit are willing to hold their coins for larger gains in the future.”

OKEx added that the possibility of BTC/USD returning below $10,000 may now be over.

As Cointelegraph reported, a consensus is already building around institutions digging in at current price levels, fuelled by buys from Grayscale and MicroStrategy which vastly outpaced newly mined BTC.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin Echoing 2017 Bull Run as Report Says Buyers Entered at $10K

A fresh surge for BTC/USD sees bears increasingly left behind as the weekend’s $1,200 drop gets almost canceled out.

Bitcoin (BTC) soared past the key technical resistance level of $11,500 and past $11,600 on Aug. 5 as a fresh round of bullish sentiment canceled out more of last weekend’s plunge.

Data from Coin360 showed BTC/USD reaching four-day highs of $11,650 at press time on Wednesday, having gained over 4% in the past 24 hours.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Coin360

Excitement remains palpable for Bitcoin, which has spent the week slowly patching up losses after it fell $1,200 from highs of $12,000 on Sunday.

Fed may unleash “wildly bullish” environment for safe havens

Bitcoin could surge higher if the United States Federal Reserve seeks to raise inflation in a move that “doesn’t make any sense.”

In an address last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the results of a year-long review which would dictate future policy could come as soon as next month.

This, as CNBC reported on Aug. 4, would mean the Fed sticks to lower interest rates for the year in order to get inflation to a target of 2%. Annual inflation to June was 0.6%.

As a result, recent all-time highs for safe-haven assets should continue, with gold, silver and potentially Bitcoin all feeling the benefits of the Fed’s measures.

Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told the publication that a 2% inflation target would see “real yields persistently lower, the dollar lower, volatility lower, credit spreads lower and equities higher.”

It would be “wildly bullish” for both gold and silver, he added.

Bitcoin has recently copied the record rise of safe havens, with press-time levels passing $11,600 on the back of quarterly gains of almost 60%.

BTC/USD chart showing VIX volatility. Source: Josh Olszewicz/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday, multiple statistics show a surge of interest and investment in the cryptocurrency over the past few months.

Continuing, another analyst warned that a shift to higher inflation would cause more pain for the average consumer and fly in the face of logic.

“It doesn’t make any economic sense whatsoever,” CNBC quoted Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, as saying.

“The consumer is very fragile right now. The last thing we should be shooting for is a higher cost of living.”

VIX trend means Bitcoin stays “extremely bullish”

Summarizing the plans, Gabor Gurbacs, a strategist at Bitcoin-friendly investment manager VanEck, painted a grim future for the U.S. dollar and those who hold it.

“The two options with fiat money is to spend it fast before it inflates or put it in speculative markets artificially propped up by central bank printed money,” he wrote on Twitter.

“Fiat money is not a savings instrument. The average person doesn’t understand this.”

Meanwhile, another indicator of potential further gains for Bitcoin came in the form of its relationship to the VIX volatility index this week.

As noted by Brave New Coin analyst Josh Olszewicz, declines in VIX typically spell gains for BTC/USD, with the downtrend continuing for several months.

“Historically extremely bullish for BTC,” he tweeted.

VIX is derived from the activity on the S&P 500, a stock market with which Bitcoin has historically demonstrated up to a 95% correlation.

Author: William Suberg

Source: Coin Telegraph: Bitcoin Price Rebounds to $11.6K as VIX Is ‘Extremely Bullish’

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