At press time, BCH/BTC traded at 0.017 BTC, comfortably beating its previous record low of 0.0245 BTC seen in December 2018.
The hard fork of Bitcoin has seen little attention this year, as investors focused on Bitcoin and then the decentralized finance phenomenon. The announcement of another hard fork of the Bitcoin Cash network, set for Nov. 15, has done little to buoy the coin’s prospects, data shows.
In USD terms, Bitcoin Cash has spent the past three months fluctuating in a corridor between $230 and $280, while Bitcoin itself has increased by a third in value.
Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin proponents took a dim view of the upcoming hard fork, something which has sparked a familiar tussle between businesses opting to support or reject the resulting new coins.
“Hopefully this election drama will clear up before the next scheduled shitcoin drama: T minus 10 days to the next bcash fracture!” CasaHODL co-founder Jameson Lopp summarized on Twitter last week as the hard fork was confirmed.
Litecoin sees lowest-ever weekly close
For Litecoin (LTC), price data shows a similar story. LTC/USD traded at 0.0038 BTC on Nov. 10, increasingly close to its extant bottom of 0.003 BTC from March 2017.
On the weekly chart, the pair printed its lowest close in history this month.
Noting the lack of performance by both Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash since PayPal confirmed that it would support both assets along with Bitcoin from 2021, one popular Twitter account summed up the mood among those who favor BTC.
“We think it’s a bad business decision and also morally and ethically bankrupt for PayPal to allow retail customers to purchase BCH and LTC,” it wrote on Nov. 5.
“Many retail investors will be tricked with misleading copy like below into purchasing assets that are completely worthless. It’s not right.”
Some traders continue to forecast the return of “alt season” next year, although prospects remain bleak for the near term. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market cap dominance has reached 64%, its highest since June.
That perspective marks the closest that Gundlach has come to reversing his hands-off stance and advocating that investors actually buy Bitcoin.
Gold, meanwhile, is set to increase markedly over time, he continued, in line with other proponents of the precious metal currently forecasting major gains after the United StatesS. presidential election.
Perceptions vs. returns
Data shows the extent of Bitcoin’s returns versus gold and other macro assets. Collated by on-chain analytics resource Skew, year-to-date figures were 88% as of Nov. 3, with gold on 24% and the S&P 500 just over 2%.
Against a backdrop of intensifying coronavirus lockdowns and associated reduced economic activity, Bitcoin is tipped to continue its rapid gains in the near- to mid-term.
As Cointelegraph reported, some expect new all-time highs to appear within the next three months, while statistician Willy Woo has argued that the cryptocurrency is already diverging from the path of other macro assets, including gold.
As Garner and others note, very little stands in the way of further positive price action above $12,000 due to how Bitcoin spent the brief periods of time above that level before.
“Skies are mostly clear above $12K across exchange orderbooks,” he summarized.
Other factors remain from previous weeks and months, notably the lack of inflows from whales, suggesting that the desire to sell large amounts of BTC remains low. Exchange balances are in fact continually dropping despite the price rises, data shows.
Concluding, Garner’s only concern was that, if Twitter sentiment is a reliable measure, few hodlers expected the current scenario.
“Too many people were unprepared for this,” he wrote, linking to a recent survey in which 35% of respondents claimed that Bitcoin made up less than 10% of their crypto portfolio.
“I’m no maximalist, got plenty of love for crypto all around, but you gotta respect the king.”
Data shows 22,000 new entities created in a single day as one analyst suggests the added volume will translate to price gains.
China may be behind a large spike in new Bitcoin (BTC) addresses as authorities launch a “targeted marketing campaign” — in favor of crypto.
In a series of tweets on Oct. 5, analyst and market cyclist Cole Garner highlighted a two-year record increase in new BTC addresses last week.
Using data from on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, Garner noted that around 22,000 new Bitcoin “entities” appeared on one day alone. The normal level is between 5,000 and 10,000 per day.
“New #bitcoin addresses were absolutely off the charts last week,” he summarized in comments.
Garner was building on other recent insights from statistician Willy Woo. Late last month, Woo described what he said was “a spike in activity by new participants coming into BTC not yet reflected in price,” also from the Glassnode data.
New addresses are an important volume indicator, Garner continued, and price action should follow. “Volume, precedes price,” he wrote.
Chinese media praises crypto performance
The source of the new addresses cannot be determined with certainty. China, however, forms Garner’s best bet, as a widely-reported media campaign in the last week of September called cryptocurrency the best-performing asset of 2020.
“Last week the Chinese government began a coordinated marketing campaign to focus Chinese retail investor psyche on crypto. Yes, this is really happening,” wrote in a further tweet.
The move also caught the attention of Primitive founding partner Dovey Wan, who described the Chinese state media campaign as “curious.”
“It’s rare for such a coordinated effort,” she commented at the time.
China has traditionally been seen as a hostile environment when it comes to consumers’ ability to engage with cryptocurrency. A ban from 2017 still remains in place, with transactions confined to over-the-counter, or OTC trades, despite mining activities openly continuing.
As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, bullish on-chain metrics for Bitcoin keep multiplying, with Woo among those calling for a breakout independent of traditional assets, notably gold, in the near future.
Adam Back believes that Bitcoin could boost its market cap by 400% in under two years.
Bitcoin (BTC) hitting a $1 trillion market cap by 2025 is “conservative,” and those levels should hit in less than two years.
That was according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who delivered a fresh bullish BTC price outlook on Monday.
Back was responding to a report by Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto-asset analyst at investment advisor Ark, who in September forecast a Bitcoin market cap of $1 trillion to $5 trillion by 2030 at the latest.
Ark is well known for its enthusiastic price forecasts for Tesla stock, which saw an almost unbelievable rise in 2020.
“Conservative. I’d say #bitcoin likely sees $1 trillion market cap within 2 years, probably sooner. $1 trillion is about BTC $50k,” he said.
As of October, Bitcoin’s market cap is just over $198 billion. For Back’s prognosis to come true, the market would need to see a 400% increase by 2022.
For reference, at the start of October two years ago in 2018, the figure stood at $114 billion. BTC/USD traded at $6,600, two months before the pit of its bear market which bottomed out at $3,100.
Analysts betting on a breakout
Further responses to Ark included on-chain data resource Ecoinometrics, which highlighted a $2 trillion Bitcoin market cap as equal to that of Apple.
BTC/USD would trade at $100,000 under such circumstances, while to equal gold, the pair would need to reach $500,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin price activity is currently much more subdued, with analysts expecting more sideways action to characterize the remainder of the year.
At the same time, anticipation is building over BTC/USD abandoning its correlation to traditional macro assets and rising in line with historical behavior — specifically centered on predictions from the stock-to-flow price forecasting models.
Bitcoin difficulty ribbon compression has broken out of a bear trend it has been in since the March coronavirus crash.
Bitcoin (BTC) simply needs history to repeat itself to see significant price rises, according to two indicators now flipping bullish.
On Sep. 28, on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s difficulty ribbon compression had broken out of its green “buy” zone for the first time since the March coronavirus crash.
Glassnode hints at “significant” BTC price increases
Difficulty ribbon compression is based on difficulty ribbons, a metric devised by statistician Willy Woo as a way to gauge optimal times to buy Bitcoin.
Ribbons use simple moving average values for mining difficulty, contracting as miners sell BTC to balance costs and then capitulate, often at the end of bear markets. This leaves stronger miners, and price recovery and then growth ensue.
Compression adds standard deviation to the mixture, allowing analysts to quantify ribbon compression and work out when to enter the market even more precisel
“Difficulty Ribbon Compression is trending up and broke out of the green buy zone for the first time since March,” Glassnode commented the data on Twitter.
“Historically, these have been periods characterized by a positive momentum indicating significant $BTC price increases.”
Woo agreed, adding that difficulty ribbons were “more reliable personal favourites” among Bitcoin price metrics. He said that BTC investors should prepare for a “great Q4 2020.”
Tracking periods in BTC price history from lows to highs against the backdrop of halving cycles, the chart currently gives a strong indication of BTC/USD heading upwards by an order of magnitude into 2021.
By the end of next year, if historical behavior repeats itself, the market could trade closer to $150,000 than $10,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, anticipation continues to build around Bitcoin conforming to historical precedent and launching out of its current range, which has topped out at $12,500. Factors such as U.S. dollar strength are keeping optimism in check, but are at odds with network fundamentals, including difficulty, which is at all-time highs.
For some analysts, including Cointelegraph’s own Michaël van de Poppe, downside risk remains in the form of a retest of $9,600, which contains the only remaining lower CME futures gap. The brief trip to $9,800 failed to plug that gap, leaving expectations open for a repeat performance.
For the meantime, however, moves are failing to impress.
“Ultra boring markets, but couldn’t break $10,800. Losing $10,600 and I’ll target $10,400,” van de Poppe commented on Sunday, just prior to a modest jump and rejection $10,950.
He uploaded a scenario incorporating a subsequent dip to $10,400 before a potential retest of $11,000.
Bitcoin grapples with $11,000 as money laundering engulfs the banking sector again and coronavirus spoils stocks sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week still looking for $11,000 support as macro markets wobble over coronavirus and banks’ criminal activities.
Cointelegraph highlights five factors that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.
Banks face money laundering deluge
While central banks grappled with dramatic shifts in United States economy policy, fresh leaked files showed yet more evidence of largescale money laundering.
A huge trove of documents from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), dubbed the FinCEN Files, found its way to investigative journalists throughout the world this month, and the focus was clear: illegal activities gone unnoticed.
One example involves HSBC, which continued allowing funds to move through its accounts despite being notified of their criminal origins. The bank’s shares were down to 25-year lows on Monday.
Other revelations include much activity linked to the Russian elite using United Kingdom banks to avoid Western sanctions.
Bitcoin proponents were quick to call out the irony of the situation, given the history of many banks in the files claiming that Bitcoin itself facilitated crime.
A pair of advertisements in Hong Kong for Bitcoin and HSBC ironically summarized the status quo, with statistician Willy Woo tweeting:
“‘Be your own Bank. The story continues’. HSBC on point!”
Central banks around the world continue to deal with coronavirus fallout, meanwhile, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet to discuss its response — and possible implications for the euro — this week.
As Cointelegraph reported, the Bank of England (BoE) is currently entertaining the possibility of introducing negative interest rates for the first time in its history.
Stocks down as coronavirus weighs
Trading in Asia opened on a weaker note Monday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index down 1.5% — driven by HSBC shares hitting their lowest since 1995.
A similar picture came from Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 1.6%. In the United States prior to the opening bell, S&P 500 futures were down 1%.
The U.S. faces a mixed bag of woes as politicians struggle to agree on a fresh coronavirus stimulus package and elections draw nearer.
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, after last week’s speech about the central bank’s extraordinary economic policy progress left many skeptical about its capabilities.
“We do have concerns down the stretch about the markets reacting poorly to some of the uncertainties facing us — the election, potentially around Covid-19, and the fact that we don’t have a stimulus package yet,” Rebecca Felton, senior market strategist at global asset manager Riverfront Investment Group, told Bloomberg.
“I would have to think we could be volatile to the downside here.”
Any combination weighing on the strength of the U.S. dollar is currently a boon for Bitcoin, continuing its inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY).
On the day, safe-haven gold was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1,953.
U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart
Bitcoin fundamentals hit new all-time highs
There was more good news for Bitcoin analysts eyeing network strength this week as difficulty and hash rate stayed at all-time highs.
The difficulty, arguably Bitcoin’s most important fundamental feature, increased 11.35% at the latest automatic readjustment on Sunday.
According to estimates from BTC.com, the next readjustment in 12 days’ time is already set to add another 10.2%.
The fresh upside underscores fierce competition among Bitcoin miners to gain block rewards — rewards which remain unalterably constant at 6.25 BTC per block regardless of how many are competing.
Hash rate, meanwhile, an estimate of the total computing power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, hit a fresh record of 143 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Saturday.
A popular theory suggests that price bullishness follows fundamentals, and miners’ belief in Bitcoin’s long-term profitability is now clear to see.
$11,000 proves tough for BTC
BTC/USD stayed rangebound over the weekend, failing to flip $11,000 into any form of a support level.
The ranging behavior continued a pattern from last week, during which Bitcoin nonetheless managed to exit higher from fundamental support at $10,000.
For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, keeping $11,000 and the higher $11,200 as resistance means that Bitcoin will stay in the $10,000 zone for the time being.
“Given that we’ve got this rangebound construction, we have to check the lower timeframes, in which the most likely scenario is a case of testing the upper resistance zone of $11,200 to $11,400, and given the significance of this resistance zone, it’s unlikely that we’re going to break through it in one go,” he summarized in a Twitter update Saturday.
BTC/USD subsequently fulfilled the prophecy, seeing rejection at just below $11,200 on Sunday.
In terms of further downside potential, should lower support give way, the open CME futures gap at $9,600 remains in play. Analysts stayed divided over whether the recent dip to $9,800 could be classed as sufficient to “close” the gap — Bitcoin may attempt to hit it definitively or leave the recent lows as a bottom.
The original stock-to-flow model is calling time on Bitcoin’s phase at around $10,000, and it’s not been wrong so far.
It’s high time for Bitcoin (BTC) to begin its next significant price rise, the creator of one of the best-known BTC price models says.
In a tweet on Sep. 14, quantitative analyst PlanB highlighted increasing signs that BTC/USD is due to repeat historical gains.
PlanB on BTC price: “Time to go up”
Referring to the original incarnation of his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, PlanB said that the time was right to begin an order of magnitude step up.
“This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used),” he wrote alongside a new chart.
“You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up.”
The original S2F chart differs from the more recent stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which incorporates macro factors and introduces “phases” in Bitcoin’s metamorphosis as an asset. It calls for an average BTC price of $288,000 before 2024.
Since the May halving, Bitcoin has put in “red dots” on the model, which have run to expectations, if not in a similar fashion to what happened after the 2016 halving.
“If you’d like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted on Sept. 14.
“Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it’s likely we’ll see that too.”
When asked where the source of funds will come from in order to propel BTC/USD toward $100,000, PlanB highlighted a blog post about S2F and confirmed that his hypothesis remained valid.
It would be “silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates [..], countries with predatory governments [..], billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”
U.S. dollar strength combines with a decision on monetary policy in Europe as a backdrop to fresh fear among Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $10,000 support after a weekend in which it consolidated after a major drop — what next?
Cointelegraph takes a look at the major factors set to influence BTC price action in the coming week.
Keiser: U.S. currency index needs to drop below 80
The end of last week saw big changes for BTC/USD, with the pair shedding over 15% from $12,050 to bounce at $9,900.
The weekend failed to trigger a significant bounce, with $9,900 seeing several more tests before Bitcoin drifted back into five figures.
What changed on Friday was one macro factor — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began rising after hitting two-year lows.
DXY measures USD against a basket of U.S. trading partner currencies. A week previously, an inflation announcement from the Federal Reserve had a bearish impact on the index, but last week saw a reversal in its fortunes — at the expense of safe havens.
At publication time on Sep. 7, DXY was at 92.95, having risen as high as 93.25 over the weekend. For RT host Max Keiser, fresh losses need to appear for Bitcoin to gain — the inverse correlation between the cryptocurrency and DXY should continue.
“We need the DXY to drop through 80 to get the real fireworks going in #Bitcoin and Gold,” he tweeted.
Keiser added that developments in the ongoing Brexit saga could also prove a positive influence for BTC next month. Should the European Union adopt a hardline stance with the United Kingdom, the euro could benefit and pressure DXY.
“Hopefully the EU cuts (the U.K.) off in October, freeing the Euro to trade higher. This will help Bitcoin a lot,” he wrote.
Crunch time for policy in Europe
On the topic of geopolitics, multiple events this week may serve to steer markets, with Bitcoin reacting in step.
In addition to preparations for Brexit talks failing, the EU will eye economic policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss its options.
As Cointelegraph noted, deflation has returned to the ECB’s sphere of influence for the first time since 2016. Now, the focus will turn to whether copying the U.S. approach is suitable for the eurozone.
As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global recovery from the March coronavirus crash, once robust, is now fizzling.
“High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall – with activity still well short of pre-virus levels – in the third,” the publication’s chief economist, Tom Orlik, commented.
To return to “pre-virus normality,” he added, all that would work is a coronavirus vaccine.
CME gap opens at $10,600
This weekend delivered on a classic Bitcoin price trigger which could see short-term upside reenter the picture.
On Friday, CME Group’s Bitcoin futures closed trading at $10,615 but reopened again at $10,430.
The resulting “gap” in the market provides likely room for an uptick from current levels of $10,100 — if Bitcoin follows historical behavioral patterns, the void should not last long.
The original dip below $10,000 gave rise to hopes that the only gap disobeying the rule — at $9,700 — would get filled. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $10,000 must disintegrate to make that possible.
“Holding $10,000 should warrant a short-term relief bounce towards the $10,800-10,900 area,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday.
“Breaking $10,000 and the market goes for the CME gap in one-go and we’ll see mid $9K’s.”
Fundamentals see only a modest fall
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals look set to take a break this week as miners take stock of the price declines.
According to data from on-chain monitoring resources BTC.com and Blockchain, difficulty and hash rate are set to come off near all-time highs.
The next automatic difficulty adjustment will occur on Monday and will see a negative move of an estimated 1.7%. The difficulty is currently at its highest ever, underscoring the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.
The hash rate, meanwhile, saw its absolute peak in mid-August but has since dropped only negligibly — currently at around 122 exahashes per second (EH/s).
Hash rate gives a rough estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, with downward price pressure tending to disrupt some less profitable miners.
On Thursday, a day before the $9,900 dip, Cointelegraph reported on outflows from some major mining pools spiking — BTC was heading to exchanges while the spot price was around $11,500 after a rejection of $12,000 support.
Sentiment turns from greed to fear
In a telling consequence of price action, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dropped to its most “fearful” in almost two months.
According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investors have completely changed their outlook versus just one week ago.
The Index takes multiple factors into account to compile a normalized reading of how much fear or greed is circulating from market participants at a given time. The higher the reading, the more likely the market is due for a correction.
As Cointelegraph reported, much of August saw the index linger near its all-time highs of 85/100, known as “extreme greed.” Before the run to $12,000, however, the number was closer to 40, or “fear.”
Friday saw another shake-up, with “greed” abruptly disappearing to be replaced once again by “fear” with the index measuring 41/100, the lowest levels since July.